2.2 Global Futurism and Megatrends

Business is shifting from products to services which are becoming increasingly important in a world where knowledge is a commodity. Total exports of services rose 50.5% in 2023, which exceeded pre-pandemic levels of 2019 by $11.9bn (11.8%).

However, COVID-19 exposed business risks impacting on those dependent on multiple supply chains, and the experience has reset thinking on overseas manufacturing reliance.

Some relief will likely come through additive manufacturing. Improvements in technology and 3D printing will becomes the norm with onshore suppliers able to layer materials to create required items. The ‘molecular economy’ could be a very significant disruptor.

Nanotechnology will be a disruptor that challenges current manufacturing and while the ‘next greatest thing’ in technology can vary, the trend is towards ever more compact and mobile.

It is expected that the continued move to mechanisation will impact on labour and risk jobs. The positive aspect for Australia is that with labour costs removed there will be a more level playing field in respect of input costs and global competitiveness. Workers in emerging economies will be particularly vulnerable.

The World Bank predicts the leading risk to workers will be in China (77%) and India (67%). The consequence is political risk focuses on the young age demographic of those countries where unemployment could be as high as 34%.